Pair #7584

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CMOR

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5470

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-CMOR

The Masters: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 751

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors is a final-tournament result and does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Masters. Round 1 standing and final tournament standing are independent.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -46.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -50.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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