KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MFIT
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 377505
YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9750
Last: 0.0270
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MFIT
The Masters: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 21827
YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:10:02Z
Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick leads after Round 1, he has completed Round 1 and will play Round 2; as the Round 1 leader he would not be cut before Round 2, and after completing Round 2 a Round 1 leader would almost certainly make the cut. However, strictly: the cut is made after Round 2, and a Round 1 leader could theoretically collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut. There is no logical necessity. Actually reconsidering: leading after R1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could shoot a very high score in R2 and miss the cut. No implication holds in either direction with logical certainty.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8350
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A
Not yet reviewed.
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