Pair #7578

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MFIT

Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 55028

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MFIT

The Masters: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 21827

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing in the top 5 requires completing all four rounds, which necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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