Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MFIT
Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 55028
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MFIT
The Masters: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 21827
YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:36Z
Reasoning: Finishing in the top 5 requires completing all four rounds, which necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A