Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MFIT
Masters Tournament: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 125841
YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MFIT
The Masters: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 21827
YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:36Z
Reasoning: Finishing in the top 20 requires completing all four rounds, which necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not imply a top 20 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A