Pair #7572

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MFIT

The Masters: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 21827

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:36Z

Reasoning: Fitzpatrick could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) without making the cut at the Masters. And making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.33% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.61% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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