Pair #7571

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 19801

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 377505

YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9750
Last: 0.0270

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:36Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors and does not require leading Round 1 at the Masters. Leading Round 1 at the Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9970
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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