Pair #756

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-STHE

Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 45434

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-STHE

Valspar Championship: Will Sahith Theegala make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 576

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:16Z

Reasoning: If Sahith Theegala finishes top 20 in the Valspar Championship, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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