Pair #7556

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 429062

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-BKOE

Masters Tournament: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 149990

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:19Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 does not require leading after R1, and leading after R1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2470
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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