Pair #7549

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BKOE

The Masters: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 12778

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.1100
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:00Z

Reasoning: Koepka could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open) without making the cut at the Masters. And making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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