Pair #7548

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 429062

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:00Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after R1 at the Masters, and leading after R1 at the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 4.05% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9770
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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