Pair #7547

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18194

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 22306

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:00Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after R2 at the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading after R2). Leading after R2 at the Masters does not guarantee winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +3.38% PROFITABLE

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