Pair #7544

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-BKOE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3474

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 429062

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:09:00Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after R1 at the Masters, and leading after R1 does not guarantee a top-10 finish in all 4 majors. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.98% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9970
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -2.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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