Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MLEE
Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 287162
YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0270
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MLEE
The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 13192
YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Min Woo Lee has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:08:38Z
Reasoning: If Min Woo Lee leads after Round 1, he will almost certainly make the cut — in fact, the leader after R1 always makes the cut since the cut is made after R2 and the R1 leader plays R2. Being the outright R1 leader means he has completed R1 and will play R2, and the cut threshold cannot exclude the R1 leader. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not imply he led after R1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3160
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A