Pair #7532

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 21298

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MLEE

The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 39616

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:08:38Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not necessitate being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer (another such golfer could finish higher), and being top Asian/Oceanic golfer does not necessitate finishing top 20 (he could be best among that group but finish outside top 20).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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