Pair #7523

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 21298

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:08:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a 2026 major could happen at a different major than The Masters. Being top Asian/Oceanic at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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