Pair #7521

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MLEE

The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 13192

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:08:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could come at any of the four majors, not necessarily The Masters. Making the cut at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -35.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -39.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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