Pair #7520

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5600

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 287162

YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0270

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:08:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading Round 1 at The Masters (he could win a different major, or win The Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 at The Masters does not necessitate winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.26% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -5.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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