Pair #7519

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MLEE

The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 39616

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:08:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require winning The Masters specifically — Lee could win the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship. And finishing top 20 at The Masters does not mean he wins any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue