Pair #7518

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MLEE

The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 25482

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:55Z

Reasoning: Winning any major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open — not necessarily The Masters. And finishing top 10 at The Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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