Pair #7517

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-MLEE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 999

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 21298

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all majors doesn't guarantee being the best Asian/Oceanic golfer (another such golfer could also finish top 10 but ahead of Lee). And being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer doesn't imply top 10 in all majors. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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