Pair #7516

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-MLEE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 999

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-MLEE

The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 20347

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all majors requires top 10 at The Masters, but not necessarily top 5. And top 5 at The Masters doesn't guarantee top 10 at all other majors. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -10.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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