Pair #7515

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-MLEE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 999

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-MLEE

The Masters: Will Min Woo Lee make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 13192

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at The Masters (required by the all-4-majors event) requires making the cut. So the all-majors top 10 necessarily implies making the cut at The Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -85.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -89.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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