Pair #7514

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-MLEE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 999

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 287162

YES ask: 0.0270
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0270

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all majors does not require leading after Round 1 of The Masters, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee top 10 in all majors. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0270
Days to maturity: 39
Hurdle yield: 4.18%
Excess yield: -26.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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