Pair #7505

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 8999

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 56908

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 does not guarantee being the top European (another European could finish higher), and being top European does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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