Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SLOW
Will Shane Lowry finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 8999
YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SHL
The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 56908
YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:31Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 does not guarantee being the top European (another European could finish higher), and being top European does not guarantee a top 5 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A