Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SLOW
Will Shane Lowry finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 8999
YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SLOW
Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 140075
YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0150
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:31Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee being the top European at tournament end, and being top European does not require leading after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8450
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A