Pair #750

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1989

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 10 in round 1 of the Valspar are entirely unrelated. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -20.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -24.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue