Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SLOW
Will Shane Lowry finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 8999
YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SHL
The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 55762
YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:31Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not guarantee being the top European (another European could finish higher), and being top European does not require a top 20 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A