Pair #7497

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 55762

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SLOW

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10800

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the tournament, which requires making the cut. Making the cut does not imply finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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