Pair #7495

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 8999

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66717

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 does not guarantee being the top European (another European could finish higher), and being top European does not guarantee a top 10 finish (all Europeans could finish outside top 10).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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