Pair #7494

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 56908

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66717

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: If Lowry finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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