Pair #7492

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 140075

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66717

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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