Pair #7490

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 8999

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Winning a major (possibly not The Masters) does not imply being the top European at The Masters. Being top European at The Masters does not imply winning a major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -27.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue