Pair #749

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12933

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship are completely independent events. Neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.51% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue