Pair #7488

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SLOW

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10800

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Lowry could win one of the other three majors without making the cut at The Masters. Making the cut at The Masters does not imply winning a major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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