Pair #7487

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 140075

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading Round 1 at The Masters. Leading Round 1 at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9950
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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