Pair #7486

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 55762

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Lowry could win one of the other three majors and finish outside the top 20 at The Masters. And finishing top 20 at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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