Pair #7485

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2914

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66717

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Lowry could win a major other than The Masters, so winning a major does not imply a top 10 at The Masters. Finishing top 10 at The Masters does not imply winning a major. No implication either way.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -63.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -67.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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