Pair #7483

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SLOW

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 56908

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not necessitate a top 5 at The Masters (top 10 is sufficient). And finishing top 5 at The Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 at all 4 majors. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -93.75% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -97.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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