Pair #7482

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SLOW

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1100

Rules

If Shane Lowry finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-SLOW

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10800

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0600
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Shane Lowry has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at The Masters (required by the all-4-majors market) means Lowry completed the tournament, which requires making the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.85% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -103.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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