Pair #7481

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SLOW

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 140075

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 of The Masters, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.32% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9950
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -0.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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