Pair #7480

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-SLOW

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 677

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SHL

The Masters: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 55762

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors means finishing top 10 at The Masters, which is necessarily also a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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