Pair #748

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2449

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1989

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:08:16Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar does not require a top-10 round 1 score, and finishing top 10 in round 1 does not guarantee making the cut. These are independent events with no logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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