Pair #7472

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-HMAT

The Masters: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10441

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 24594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:56Z

Reasoning: Making the cut is necessary to complete the full tournament and thus to be eligible as top Asian/Oceanic golfer, but it does not guarantee Matsuyama finishes as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer — other Asian/Oceanic golfers could outscore him. Conversely, finishing as top Asian/Oceanic golfer implies completing the full tournament (making the cut), but the rules for the category market specify 'golfers who complete the full tournament,' so if Matsuyama wins the category he must have made the cut. However, the make-cut market could resolve Yes independently without him winning the category. So top Asian/Oceanic → made cut, but not the reverse.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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