Pair #7471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 24594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180114

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:56Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate finishing as top Asian/Oceanic golfer (could fall behind other Asian/Oceanic golfers over 4 rounds), and being top Asian/Oceanic golfer does not necessitate leading after Round 1 (could lead the Asian/Oceanic category without leading the overall tournament after R1).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9950
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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