Pair #7470

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-HMAT

The Masters: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10441

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180114

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player could shoot a very high score in Round 2 and miss the cut. Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1250
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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