Pair #7469

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 24594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 45194

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: A top-5 finish does not require being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer (another such golfer could finish higher). Being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer does not require a top-5 finish. No necessary implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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