Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-HMAT
Will Hideki Matsuyama finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 24594
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-HMAT
Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 41050
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z
Reasoning: A top-10 finish does not require being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer (another such golfer could finish higher). Being the top Asian/Oceanic golfer does not require a top-10 finish. No necessary implication.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A