Pair #7465

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 41050

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-HMAT

The Masters: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10441

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 requires completing the full tournament, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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