Pair #7462

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-HMAT

The Masters: Will Hideki Matsuyama make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10441

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 20 at The Masters, Matsuyama must complete the full tournament, which requires making the cut. Therefore a top-20 finish necessarily implies he made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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