Pair #7461

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 180114

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 70192

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 20. These are independent outcomes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4260
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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